Saturday, 21 November 2015

Miguel Cotto vs Canelo Alvarez : Prediction and Video Analysis

Cotto vs Canelo. Who Will win?

So we are less than twenty four hours away from Canelo Alvarez vs Miguel Cotto. Both fighters made weight, Cotto came in at 153.5 pounds and Canelo came in right at 155 pounds. Canelo looked a little drawn, however he’s young and he will recover quickly and will be 100% by the time he gets to the ring. This has been described as the superbowl for Hispanics, since two of the sports biggest stars reignite the Mexico vs Puerto Rican rivalry.

Right now I’m slightly leaning to Cotto by a close points decision. However the more I think about the fight, I can easily see Canelo winning this, as he seems to be a lot larger than Cotto and youth is on the Mexican’s side. It is a real 50-50 fight in my opinion and nearly every poll I have seen, supports this. It could easily turn into a modern day classic.

Decisive Factors:

Canelo is the naturally heavier fighter. He will come into the ring at close to or over 170 pounds. Cotto will come into the ring a little less than 159 pounds.

Cotto has the better footwork. If Cotto decides to box from the outside, he could easily outpoint Canelo. However Roach has installed aggressive tactics in Cotto, so Cotto will bring the fight to Canelo. This will play into Canelo’s hands.

The power edge is slightly in favor of Cotto but their isn’t much in this.

The hand speed advantage goes to Canelo. Canelo’s combinations are much faster.

At the moment, Canelo’s chin is probably rated a little better. However both have excellent chins.

Both are good defensively. Cotto slips punches better from overall lateral movement. Whereas Canelo specifically has better head movement.

Youth is on Canelo’s side as he is 11 years younger than Cotto.

What Can We Expect?

Well, the more research I do the more I can’t pick a winner. I have gone with Cotto since this fight was signed, so I will stay with this pick. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if Canelo wins this.

GBP are relying heavily on Canelo winning this. He is their biggest star and a bad loss for Canelo could really hamper GBP. GBP have had some huge names that have incurred some bad defeats recently.


Several industry insiders are also reporting that Roc Nations haven’t done a good job with this promotion and the fight isn’t as big as it should be. This will worry a few since, both are receiving very large purses. Cotto is guaranteed $15M and Canelo is guaranteed $5M. But it should come closer to $30M for Cotto and $20M for Canelo if the fight does well on PPV and after Canelo gets his Mexican TV money.

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