Thursday, 1 October 2015

GGG ‘Gennady Golovkin’ vs David Lemeiux, Full Fight Prediction

GGG Gennady Golovkin vs David Lemeiux Fight Video Replay Analysis

Gennady Golovkin takes on David Lemeiux in 15 days and counting, at Madison Square Gardens in NY, NY. This bout is being televised on HBO PPV, the under card is fantastic and the IBF & WBA full Middleweight titles will be on the line. Despite many feeling GGG will win this convincingly, I will break this fight down in extensive detail and show why this fight could go several ways.

Firstly despite GGG being an entertainment machine, some boxing experts question the wins on his record. Wins over fighters such as Daniel Geale, Curtis Stevens and Proksa are viewed as over rated by some. GGG’s win over Martin Murray is under rated though, as Murray was in the elite class at Middleweight at the time. Murray however wasn’t a big puncher and despite Curtis Stevens being a big puncher, his array of punches was to limited to land on GGG consistently, at several times throughout the fight. You can’t criticize GGG for not fighting bigger names, when some of the bigger names have flat out refused to fight him.

If you watched the videos of Golovkin’s bouts against Daniel Geale, Rubio, Murray or Proksa you will notice that combined with immense power comes a very high work rate. Golovkin’s footwork is impeccable and he cuts off the ring as good as anyone in the sport at the moment. GGG has never been dropped in his professional or amateur career’s and this totals around 400 fights across both.

What does David Lemeiux Bring To The Fight?

Well despite Lemeiux’s record which is 33-2, he’s a big threat. Lemeiux’s last losses were in 2011. He was destroying Rubio until Lemeiux gassed and was essentially stopped due to fatigue. He punched himself out in that bout. That fight did take a toll and he lost a decision to Alcine in his next bout, in a fight that many felt he won. If you are looking at those bouts and thinking Lemeiux won’t be able to test Golovkin, then you are wrong. These fights were a long time ago when Lemeiux was at a very early stage of his career. It’s like comparing Cotto and Canelo and saying Canelo can’t win because his chin is suspect, since he got hurt by Cotto’s older brother 5 years ago in a 140 pound bout. The logic of Lemeiux being vulnerable isn’t supported if you judge him by form.

At the moment Lemeiux is progressing well and according to his camp he is in the best shape of his career. And most importantly he is the best fighter he has ever been at any stage of his professional career. Essentially Lemeiux is peaking at the right moment and these improvements became noticeable over the past 18 months. I’m not saying he will beat GGG, but he will make it interesting. Just watch the Lemeiux vs Hassan N’dam fight video. You could hear the thud from those punches clearly, every time Lemeiux landed which indicates the kind of power he’s bringing to the fight. Lemeiux also has better footwork, timing and a wider range of punches than Curtis Stevens. This combination could create some problems for Golovkin.

Another major point is Golovkin isn’t the same fighter he is when fighting off the back foot. And if Lemeiux can force Golovkin to fight off the back foot for large portions of the fight, he will have success. If Golovkin is allowed to dictate the fight and fight off the front foot, it shouldn’t last to long. But Lemeiux is going into this fight with an expert corner and some experienced advice from his promoters at GBP which include De La Hoya and Hopkins. Hopkins is a genius in understanding fighter styles and predicting a style which can expose an opponent.

Who Will Win?

I expect GGG will win this fight, it won’t be easy. It’s not a sure thing either, like many in the boxing world are assuming. Lemeiux is a live chance in this fight, he can very easily cause a huge upset. It comes down to the kind of start Lemeiux has. If Lemeiux gets out there tentatively and tries to feel Golovkin out for the first few rounds, it won’t last long. If Lemeiux lands some solid power shots early and forces GGG onto the back foot, then he will have some serious success. Lemeiux probably needs to hurt GGG in the first two rounds, to go on to win the fight. Can he do it? Definetely, Lemieux has some serious power and his all round skills are under rated. But GGG is one of the biggest stars in the sport for a reason. His power, skill, footwork and overall ring intelligence is immense. He has seen just about every style and punch and he has faced big punchers before.

I expect GGG to win. But it won’t be easy. And we could very easily have a fight of the year contestant here. If Lemeiux does pull an upset, it won’t be a surprise at all.

This fight will be on HBO PPV and it’s reasonably well priced. The undercard is also fantastic with rising star Roman Gonzalez facing off against Brian Viloria, that fight can’t be missed either. A personal favorite of myn on that card is Tureano Johnson vs Eamon O’Kane.

On the same afternoon the PBC card will feature Andre Dirrell vs Australian Blake Caparello. We have interviewed Caparello before and he’s looking to cause a huge upset here. Caparello has recently made the move down from Light Heavyweight, after he lost to Kovalev in two rounds. He did drop Kovalev in the first round though. Caparello has also been training with Adonis Stevenson, so this fight could actually get interesting.

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