Miguel Cotto is widely expected to beat Daniel Geale on the 6th of June at the MSG Arena in NYC, to set up a super fight with Canelo Alvarez later in the year. Since Miguel Cotto has been training under Freddie Roach in 2013, the myth being spread is the Puerto Rican is a new fighter, a totally improved version, which isn’t in fact true. I will break down all these points and let you know why Daniel Geale has a great chance of upsetting Miguel Cotto in this bout, which is less than a month away.
Miguel Cotto paired with trainer Freddie Roach after his loss to Austin Trout in late 2012.
Cotto has only fought twice under Freddie Roach, both of them against well over matched opponents. (Rodriguez was a gatekeeper and Martinez was hampered by multiple injuries).
Delvin Rodriguez was never an elite fighter. He was a gatekeeper for the elite fighters at Junior Middleweight, realistically struggling to be ranked in the top 20 of the division. He had two fights with the severely limited but entertaining Pawel Wolak, which led to Rodriguez getting the bout with Cotto. Cotto blew Rodriguez away as expected in 3 rounds.
Cotto then fought the once great and future hall of famer Sergio Martinez in June 2014. This wasn’t the same version of Martinez which impressively outpointed Kelly Pavlik and knocked out Paul Williams in 2010. The 2014 version of Martinez was clearly on the slide, with several debilitating knee and should injuries. I would go as far as arguing that the 2014 version of Martinez, would struggle to have beaten the 2014 version of Felix Sturm. Martinez fought with knee straps, bandages and virtually everything else all over his body.
Sure Cotto did well against Floyd Mayweather in 2012, but this was mainly due to Floyd having the bizarre idea of exchanging with Cotto in close quarters, to entertain the crowd. (Please see Cotto vs Mayweather post fight interviews to hear this).
Catchweight: Cotto has imposed a catchweight of 157 pounds for this bout. This doesn’t impact Geale or provide any advantage for either fighter. Geale is a small Middleweight & at the 30 day pre-fight weigh in, Geale came in at 158 pounds and Cotto was at 163 pounds.
I expect Cotto to hurt Geale several times in the fight with his trademark left hook. But Cotto can’t close the ring off like GGG can. Geale will be able to move, counter and move again. Daniel Geale will walk away with a UD win here.
Why will Geale win when he lasted 4 rounds against GGG? Short answer is, in the Middleweight division GGG is the king. And second is daylight, with no other Middleweight close to matching him or even lasting the distance.